Temporary opening of the Skykomish

[Smalma]

I'm not surprised to see that the Stillaguamish was not open to game fish/coho at the same time.

That said I'm more surprised to see the Snoqualmie opened. Since March we have consistently heard that these Snohomish closures were necessary to protect wild Chinook returning to the basin. The justification in the announcement for these openings was that coho are abundant and returning at levels above forecast. This is true however there is no mention of Chinook or acknowledgment of the late timing of the Snoqualmie Chinook and whether there was enough Chinook impacts for that portion the Snohomish Chinook. It is my opinion that the NOR (wild) Snoqualmie fall Chinook are one of the most unique stocks in Puget Sound. They are a late spawning population will spawning consistently extending to Thanksgiving and beyond with occasional spawning seen through much of December. In addition, unlike most of the typical PS Chinook and significant portion of the returning adults have a yearling freshwater rearing contribution that often is in the 15-20% range.

Apparently high abundance of coho trumps the Chinook needs but abundance of game fish does not. Upon reflection I guess I should not be surprised this is the case.

Curt

 

[flybill]

I'm not surprised to see that the Stillaguamish was not open to game fish/coho at the same time.

That said I'm more surprised to see the Snoqualmie opened. Since March we have consistently heard that these Snohomish closures were necessary to protect wild Chinook returning to the basin. The justification in the announcement for these openings was that coho are abundant and returning at levels above forecast. This is true however there is no mention of Chinook or acknowledgment of the late timing of the Snoqualmie Chinook and whether there was enough Chinook impacts for that portion the Snohomish Chinook. It is my opinion that the NOR (wild) Snoqualmie fall Chinook are one of the most unique stocks in Puget Sound. They are a late spawning population will spawning consistently extending to Thanksgiving and beyond with occasional spawning seen through much of December. In addition, unlike most of the typical PS Chinook and significant portion of the returning adults have a yearling freshwater rearing contribution that often is in the 15-20% range.

Apparently high abundance of coho trumps the Chinook needs but abundance of game fish does not. Upon reflection I guess I should not be surprised this is the case.

Curt

i'll race ya to David Powell or the mouth of the Raging Trickle!

 

[speedbird]

I had no idea Fall Snoqualmie Chinook timing was so late, which makes me even more confused why it prevented fishing on Summer run Skykomish Chinook which were not forecasted to be low on abundance

 

[Smalma]

Kashf -
The driver for those in-river restrictions as presented at NOF was the poor natural origin escapements in 2019. On the Skykomish portion that 2019 escapement was 966 with the other escapements for the years between 2016 and 2020 ranged from 2,722 to 4,732. On the Snoqualmie side the 2019 was 443 with the other 2016 to 2020 escapements ranged from 804 to 1,409. Both sides were depressed.

The Snoqualmie side typically has fewer Chinook due to less available Chinook type habitat.

Curt

 

[SeaRunner]

I'm not surprised to see that the Stillaguamish was not open to game fish/coho at the same time.

That said I'm more surprised to see the Snoqualmie opened. Since March we have consistently heard that these Snohomish closures were necessary to protect wild Chinook returning to the basin. The justification in the announcement for these openings was that coho are abundant and returning at levels above forecast. This is true however there is no mention of Chinook or acknowledgment of the late timing of the Snoqualmie Chinook and whether there was enough Chinook impacts for that portion the Snohomish Chinook. It is my opinion that the NOR (wild) Snoqualmie fall Chinook are one of the most unique stocks in Puget Sound. They are a late spawning population will spawning consistently extending to Thanksgiving and beyond with occasional spawning seen through much of December. In addition, unlike most of the typical PS Chinook and significant portion of the returning adults have a yearling freshwater rearing contribution that often is in the 15-20% range.

Apparently high abundance of coho trumps the Chinook needs but abundance of game fish does not. Upon reflection I guess I should not be surprised this is the case.

Curt

Maybe there is now evidence suggesting that chinook returns are such that the extreme protections adopted this year are no longer needed? Like you say in your post above, my memory of NOF is that the reasoning for the restrictions was the 2019 escapement and "what if" scenarios.

Maybe it was the plan all along to open gamefish Nov. 1 regardless of coho status and coho are now just a bonus given their performance this year?

I don't know. The justification statement is essentially a throw away statement IMO that doesn't add much of anything.

 

[IHFISH]

From 12/7/22 in Fall City. Not sure if it was placed as part of nutrient enhancement efforts or made it there itself. No other carcasses nearby.

 

[speedbird]

Kashf -
The driver for those in-river restrictions as presented at NOF was the poor natural origin escapements in 2019. On the Skykomish portion that 2019 escapement was 966 with the other escapements for the years between 2016 and 2020 ranged from 2,722 to 4,732. On the Snoqualmie side the 2019 was 443 with the other 2016 to 2020 escapements ranged from 804 to 1,409. Both sides were depressed.

The Snoqualmie side typically has fewer Chinook due to less available Chinook type habitat.

Curt

The north of falcon forecasts unfortunately group both Sky and Sno fish together, but as far as I saw, we were forecasted to have a thousand more Wild Chinook than last year, when we did have a Summer Chinook fishery. Why did the 2019 escapement limit fisheries this year if we were forecasted to have enough fish returning?

 

[Smalma]

The north of falcon forecasts unfortunately group both Sky and Sno fish together, but as far as I saw, we were forecasted to have a thousand more Wild Chinook than last year, when we did have a Summer Chinook fishery. Why did the 2019 escapement limit fisheries this year if we were forecasted to have enough fish returning?

The forecast while larger than in 2022 was not enough to met the escapement needs. The big change between 2022 and 2023 is that the co-managers had submitted a new draft of their PS Chinook harvest management in February of 2022. For the 2023 the managers agreed with the feds to use updated allowable impacts, etc. in that new plan. This was especially important for the Snohomish Chinook. In previous plans when the forecast was below the lower threshold (3,250 in the new plan) the allowable Southern United States (SUS) exploitation is 8.3%. This is significant lower than the 15% (if my memory is correct) that was previously used. With that lower rate the Snohomish became one of limiting stocks resulting in among other things the extreme limited in-river recreational season.

Hopefully that 2024 forecast will be better with a larger escapements in 2000 (2,722 for the Sky and 804 for the Snoqualmie) the contribution to the 4 year old returns and a forecast in excess of 3,250.

Curt

 

[speedbird]

The forecast while larger than in 2022 was not enough to met the escapement needs. The big change between 2022 and 2023 is that the co-managers had submitted a new draft of their PS Chinook harvest management in February of 2022. For the 2023 the managers agreed with the feds to use updated allowable impacts, etc. in that new plan. This was especially important for the Snohomish Chinook. In previous plans when the forecast was below the lower threshold (3,250 in the new plan) the allowable Southern United States (SUS) exploitation is 8.3%. This is significant lower than the 15% (if my memory is correct) that was previously used. With that lower rate the Snohomish became one of limiting stocks resulting in among other things the extreme limited in-river recreational season.

Hopefully that 2024 forecast will be better with a larger escapements in 2000 (2,722 for the Sky and 804 for the Snoqualmie) the contribution to the 4 year old returns and a forecast in excess of 3,250.

Curt

As I understand the 5% we lost went straight to the Canadians. Do we know why?

If I misunderstood I suppose it will be good to see more fish coming back to Redds

 

[SeaRunner]

The forecast while larger than in 2022 was not enough to met the escapement needs. The big change between 2022 and 2023 is that the co-managers had submitted a new draft of their PS Chinook harvest management in February of 2022. For the 2023 the managers agreed with the feds to use updated allowable impacts, etc. in that new plan. This was especially important for the Snohomish Chinook. In previous plans when the forecast was below the lower threshold (3,250 in the new plan) the allowable Southern United States (SUS) exploitation is 8.3%. This is significant lower than the 15% (if my memory is correct) that was previously used. With that lower rate the Snohomish became one of limiting stocks resulting in among other things the extreme limited in-river recreational season.

Hopefully that 2024 forecast will be better with a larger escapements in 2000 (2,722 for the Sky and 804 for the Snoqualmie) the contribution to the 4 year old returns and a forecast in excess of 3,250.

Curt

My memory is that the 8.3% rate was used at 2022 NOF as well. That is the rate that I remember being presented to the public in the 2022 meetings. It's possible that the 8.3% rate was not stuck to in 2022. I don't know.