Snohomish/Skykomish get screwed

[Smalma]

Revisiting this thread trying to read through all the very detailed information here and better understand it all. With the ESA allocations that began this year, how would one calculate the minimum escapement of Chinook to the Snohomish that will leave us with a chance of avoiding this mess again?

As you the limit on our Southern United State (SUS) fisheries are based on that year's forecasts, according to the Co-managers fisheries plan if the Snohomish basin forecast is above 4,900 (3,600 for the Sky and 1,300 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable SUS rate is 10.3%. If the forecast is between that 4,900 level and 3,250 (2,015 for the Sky and 1,132 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable rate is 9.3%. If like the past year the forecast is below that 3,200 level the SUS rate will be 8.3%.

Unfortunately, the Snohomish Chinook like the majority of the PS stocks are not very productive it is hard to project what escapements would be required to achieve the above forecasts (dependents on things like flooding, ocean conditions, etc.) but I would say on the average if the escapements are similar or a bit below those breakpoints 4,900 or 3,250 laid out above we can expect the corresponding SUS rate. That low productivity also means that the populations may not rebuild very rapidly.

Curt

 

[speedbird]

As you the limit on our Southern United State (SUS) fisheries are based on that year's forecasts, according to the Co-managers fisheries plan if the Snohomish basin forecast is above 4,900 (3,600 for the Sky and 1,300 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable SUS rate is 10.3%. If the forecast is between that 4,900 level and 3,250 (2,015 for the Sky and 1,132 for the Snoqualmie) the allowable rate is 9.3%. If like the past year the forecast is below that 3,200 level the SUS rate will be 8.3%.

Unfortunately, the Snohomish Chinook like the majority of the PS stocks are not very productive it is hard to project what escapements would be required to achieve the above forecasts (dependents on things like flooding, ocean conditions, etc.) but I would say on the average if the escapements are similar or a bit below those breakpoints 4,900 or 3,250 laid out above we can expect the corresponding SUS rate. That low productivity also means that the populations may not rebuild very rapidly.

Curt

I see. That makes sense.

https://fortress.wa.gov/dfw/score/score/species/population_details.jsp?stockId=1106

If I am reading the above right, the last time Skykomish Chinook met that 3600 number was 2017, making me question if we will ever have sufficient escapement to allow a regular targeted hatchery Chinook fishery on that river again.

We are spending quite a lot of money on those fish, and their return timing is such that they cannot be targeted in the saltwater fishery except when they mill about with the Tulalip fish.

 

[charles sullivan]

I see. That makes sense.

https://fortress.wa.gov/dfw/score/score/species/population_details.jsp?stockId=1106

If I am reading the above right, the last time Skykomish Chinook met that 3600 number was 2017, making me question if we will ever have sufficient escapement to allow a regular targeted hatchery Chinook fishery on that river again.

We are spending quite a lot of money on those fish, and their return timing is such that they cannot be targeted in the saltwater fishery except when they mill about with the Tulalip fish.

Seems nuts to worry about them. Maybe whales play a role in keeping that hatch stock?

 

[JayB]

Is there still a winter hatchery program on the Sky or are the only hatchery plants for the summer broodstock program?

 

[Smalma]

Kashf -
The link provided is for the Skykomish escapements (broken out in NOR and HOR). A couple things, remember the Snohomish basin has two Chinook stocks- the Skykomish and Snoqualmie. Further the decision on how the fisheries (marine and freshwater) will be shaped depends on the forecasts. Expected escapements would be the forecast minus the expected catches.

Another new twist is that starting in 2021 the summer Chinook egg take goal at the Wallace hatchery was increased from 5.4 million to 8.5 million with the new resulting fry to rear at the Wallace Tulalip hatcheries. The expected increase in production was part of the increase production to feed SRKWs. This will increase the consideration/concern about meeting egg taking goals as well as the near certainty of increased hatchery Chinook spawning in the river.

Curt

 

[Smalma]

Is there still a winter hatchery program on the Sky or are the only hatchery plants for the summer broodstock program?

The 2023 future brood document shows a winter egg take goal (early winters) of 240,000 with 27,600 smolts planted in the Wallace and another 140,000 released at Reiter.

BTW the developing summer steelhead stock a Reiter using wild fish from Sunset Falls had a 2023 goal of taking 145,000 eggs with a release of 116,000 smolts. Too check on how well WDFW is doing in meeting those goals I checked this year's hatchery escapement report. At Reiter they took 132,000 summer run eggs, getting close to the program goal. Between Wallace (227,240 eggs) and Reiter (108,850 eggs) 336,000 winter eggs taken.

On the other half of the Snohomish basin - the Snoqualmie the Tokul hatchery has a winter steelhead goal of 120,000 eggs with a release of 74,000 smolts.

Curt

 

[JayB]

Sounds like good news. Thanks, Curt!

 

[Stonedfish]

It will be interesting to see what the seasons look like moving forward.
If they stock fish but you can’t fish for them like is happening on other systems, then what is the point?
SF

 

[JayB]

Was thinking/hoping they'd re-open the Snoho system after 11/31 since there won't be many salmon left to impact after that point but who knows....

 

[the_chemist]

Was thinking/hoping they'd re-open the Snoho system after 11/31 since there won't be many salmon left to impact after that point but who knows....

It is open. Game fish regs are now back to normal. Salmon season ends tomorrow but you can chase steelhead until Jan 31.

Snohomish system updates, many areas open or extended for salmon and gamefish on Nov. 1

Action: Opens or extends salmon seasons in Skykomish, Snohomish, Snoqualmie, and Wallace rivers.

wdfw.wa.gov

 

[speedbird]

It is open. Game fish regs are now back to normal. Salmon season ends tomorrow but you can chase steelhead until Jan 31.

Snohomish system updates, many areas open or extended for salmon and gamefish on Nov. 1

Action: Opens or extends salmon seasons in Skykomish, Snohomish, Snoqualmie, and Wallace rivers.

wdfw.wa.gov

Even with the state of that hatchery as it is today, sometimes theres a sense of peacefulness I get hitting a lonely upper stretch of wet side river that you just can’t get from any of the other better fisheries that I know. Probably also good for a river newbie like me to practice reading water for when I have time to fish more productive water or for salmon season. Who knows, maybe I’ll finally catch a Bull!

 

[Pink Nighty]

Even with the state of that hatchery as it is today, sometimes theres a sense of peacefulness I get hitting a lonely upper stretch of wet side river that you just can’t get from any of the other better fisheries that I know. Probably also good for a river newbie like me to practice reading water for when I have time to fish more productive water or for salmon season. Who knows, maybe I’ll finally catch a Bull!

Swing all the way in to the stones and strip short and jerky. That bully is waiting for you!

 

[the_chemist]

UPDATE: Gold Bar homicide suspect arrested after Skykomish River chase | HeraldNet.com

One woman was killed and another person wounded Tuesday after a shooting near Gold Bar.

www.heraldnet.com

Between this and the nazi run gold bar grocery store, the sky seems to be extra salty these days.

 

[Paige]

UPDATE: Gold Bar homicide suspect arrested after Skykomish River chase | HeraldNet.com

One woman was killed and another person wounded Tuesday after a shooting near Gold Bar.

www.heraldnet.com

Between this and the nazi run gold bar grocery store, the sky seems to be extra salty these days.

What's your hatred to the grocery store?

 

[the_chemist]

What's your hatred to the grocery store?

Gold Bar resident says clerk’s shirt is ‘crossing a line’ as some feel unsafe in grocery store

“The world’s a scary place right now. And Gold Bar should be a safe haven for those of us who live here,” said Gold Bar resident Lynne Kelly.

www.kiro7.com

 

[skyriver]

When I lived in Monroe we made sure we didn't go to Fred Meyer certain times of the week. I can't remember which day it was, but it was the day with a lot of what I lovingly called "upper river people." And before anyone goes and gets all butt-hurt over my term of endearment or supposed hatred of poor people...I knew plenty of nice people from up the river that didn't 1) dump their shit in the river or town, 2) drive drunk or high, 3)drive without insurance, 4) wear KKK shirts, 5) look at me like they wanted to kill me.
I grew up poor in the country. We didn't do any of that stuff.
We also didn't go to certain parts of Everett at night, but that's a whole different vibe.

Looks like things haven't changed. River looks good though! 41 degrees....that's type 4 and a #1 Popsicle water. If there were any fish in it.

 

[Paige]

Gold Bar resident says clerk’s shirt is ‘crossing a line’ as some feel unsafe in grocery store

“The world’s a scary place right now. And Gold Bar should be a safe haven for those of us who live here,” said Gold Bar resident Lynne Kelly.

www.kiro7.com

That guy usually wears a cowboy outfit with revolver and a good old star badge. I haven't seen him last couple times ive been in, wonder if he got fired.

 

[SKYKO]

Swing all the way in to the stones and strip short and jerky. That bully is waiting for you!

Got 2 today under this exact scenario, a few weeks ago had one attack on the lift for a double spey and crush the fly, they are chasers and eaters for sure.

 

[O' Clarkii Stomias]

Looks like things haven't changed. River looks good though! 41 degrees....that's type 4 and a #1 Popsicle water. If there were any fish in it.

So sad.

 

[Flymph]

That guy usually wears a cowboy outfit with revolver and a good old star badge. I haven't seen him last couple times ive been in, wonder if he got fired.

He's probably running for political office.