Snohomish and Stillaguamish Chinook take another hit
- Thread starter Smalma
- Start date
So the bulk of the snoho pink run was done by the first week of novemeber and the system was loaded by mid september. A google search says pinks hatch 8-16 weeks after spawning and chinook ~12 weeks. Majority of the september pink and chinook spawners should be fine and probably a good chunk of the october pinks as well. Does my math make sense?
Im trying to stay positive. Not ideal but hopefully not all doom and gloom.
On the Skykomish and NF Stillaguamish this event is significantly larger than the November 2021 event for those basins.
That 2021 event was confined to the Fraser, northern Puget Sound rivers (Nooksack, Skagit). Even on the Skagit the 2021 event largely affected the upper Skagit with the rest of basin (Sauk, larger Skagit tribs. etc.) experiencing flooding similar to what was seen on the Stillaguamish. Every flood is different. Typically flooding this time of year is drive by rain on snow type of events. In this case it looks to be more drive by just a lot of rain which means the lower elevation tribs being more heavily impacted. Generally speaking flooding in November, December and January are the ones that hit the fall spawning salmon the hardest.
Just a note most of time the "hatching" of our salmon is two step process. The alevin (egg sack fry) hatch from their eggs but remain in the gravel substrates for another month or so before absorbing their egg sack before emerging from the gravel. If they are force from that gravel early (either from flood scour or low dissolved oxygen they take a survival hit. Typically, here in north Puget Sound see the Chinook fry beginning to emerge from gravel in late January (the summer fish) with the fall fish even later. The pinks after emerging from the gravel spend just a few days in the river and beginning hitting the salt in February and March. As an aside the Snoqualmie wild fall Chinook are the latest spawning Chinook I know of in Puget Sound and they are just now finishing their spawning so were especially vulnerable.
As an angler I usually approach all things "fishy" with optimism otherwise we probably would not fish. But that said in looking forward usually we need to temper out hopes with some reality.
Curt
That 2021 event was confined to the Fraser, northern Puget Sound rivers (Nooksack, Skagit). Even on the Skagit the 2021 event largely affected the upper Skagit with the rest of basin (Sauk, larger Skagit tribs. etc.) experiencing flooding similar to what was seen on the Stillaguamish. Every flood is different. Typically flooding this time of year is drive by rain on snow type of events. In this case it looks to be more drive by just a lot of rain which means the lower elevation tribs being more heavily impacted. Generally speaking flooding in November, December and January are the ones that hit the fall spawning salmon the hardest.
Just a note most of time the "hatching" of our salmon is two step process. The alevin (egg sack fry) hatch from their eggs but remain in the gravel substrates for another month or so before absorbing their egg sack before emerging from the gravel. If they are force from that gravel early (either from flood scour or low dissolved oxygen they take a survival hit. Typically, here in north Puget Sound see the Chinook fry beginning to emerge from gravel in late January (the summer fish) with the fall fish even later. The pinks after emerging from the gravel spend just a few days in the river and beginning hitting the salt in February and March. As an aside the Snoqualmie wild fall Chinook are the latest spawning Chinook I know of in Puget Sound and they are just now finishing their spawning so were especially vulnerable.
As an angler I usually approach all things "fishy" with optimism otherwise we probably would not fish. But that said in looking forward usually we need to temper out hopes with some reality.
Curt
I drove my truck through this at a significantly lower water level this morning at 4:45am on my way to work. My wife sent me this at 7:30am and it was waist deep and rising by the minute. Pretty wild how fast it came up. Needless to say, I haven’t made it home yet. Thats Hillis rd just upstream from Grant Creek looking out to 530, the Cicero bridge is just out of frame to the right. Gnarly.
jeradjames
Steelhead
I drove 530 all the way up to Rockport yesterday, left around 3, and there were zero problems with the roads. No hydroplaning anywhere. Things changed quickly.
One potential cause for optimism is this recent flood was of short duration, the rivers rose quickly and dropped quickly. Often the amount of damage a particular flood causes is a function of both the height and the duration.
On the Skagit significant reduction in egg survival happens as flows raise above 60,000 cfs (at concrete gauge). Yesterday the peak at Concrete at 96,000 cfs and was over that 60,000 cfs threshold for 24 hours. A similar size event was the 2017 flood (106,000 cfs) where the river was above that same threshold for 48 hours.
BTW the 2021 flood on the Skagit (at Concrete) reached 57,700 cfs.
Curt
On the Skagit significant reduction in egg survival happens as flows raise above 60,000 cfs (at concrete gauge). Yesterday the peak at Concrete at 96,000 cfs and was over that 60,000 cfs threshold for 24 hours. A similar size event was the 2017 flood (106,000 cfs) where the river was above that same threshold for 48 hours.
BTW the 2021 flood on the Skagit (at Concrete) reached 57,700 cfs.
Curt
Pink Nighty
Life of the Party
I'm seeing the 2021 flood as peaking at 119k cfs that stayed above 60k from nov 13 into nov 19, with a brief drop to 45k on the 14th (in concrete). Am I missing something? To my eye, 2021 on the skagit was a higher peak with longer sustained scouring levels.
Pink Nighty
Life of the Party
This flood does appear to be a good bit worse on the sauk, with a peak over 60k this year for 36 hours now, where 2021 saw several spikes of short duration that never broke 60.
Gonna have to relearn the river again this spring. Hopefully I can do it without incident.
If you float it, I suggest bringing oars.Gonna have to relearn the river again this spring. Hopefully I can do it without incident.
