Dismal on the 'Duc - Coho management failure

[brownheron]

I've been torn on whether to share my thoughts on this or not as I'm sure I don't have all the facts and background context. So take this with a grain of salt as being written by a semi-local who is acquainted with a bunch of Forks anglers and guides and who is also pretty fed up with the WDFW approach to fisheries management on the Quilleute system.

Fall coho on the Sol Duc has been pretty much a complete bust. Last week I heard the hatchery has only gotten 2,500 fish whereas 19-20K is more normal for this point in the season.

Some of you will recall my complaints about the nonsensical summer closure to help get hatchery take for spring chinook (didn't really happen) in this thread: OP Closures

Well, in their wisdom, instead of waiting for rain like they did last year, WDFW re-opened the river in early October when the rivers were still at record low flows. The Sol Duc was shin deep at the deepest behind our place. So the fall coho run was trapped in the lower Quilleute where it was wiped out by overharvest; tribal, sport, and poaching. I haven't seen numbers but I have a good guess on which one of those had the worst impact. There just wasn't any water to give the fish refuge and they could not get up the step at Leyendecker to access the Sol Duc.

Fast forward to now, we've had some rain and decent flows and the Sol Duc is basically empty. I can usually go out and see a few rollers in the tank downstream and when the rain comes, it's a stream of coho on their way to the hatchery just upstream of my house. This year, not a splash. I've floated from the hatchery to my house a couple times and there's just nothing there. Maybe one or two stragglers.

And... it appears the original forecast was way off, too optimistic.

Given this exact situation happened last year and they mitigated it with an early closure until we got rain, their approach this year makes no sense. Pure speculation on my part but given no transparency from WDFW as usual, the narrative that creates itself in my head is that that tribes told the WDFW that they were fishing whatever WDFW says and that if we don't, they're taking ours too on foregone opportunity.

So before you congratulate them for taking a stand on the Qin, think about the total fuckup on the Quil.

 

[Shad]

I agree that the situation on the Quileute sounds bad... really bad. Hadn't seen it before now, but YIKES!

That said, all these runs are at least somewhat unique, and strangely, Grays Harbor and upper OP fisheries experience different levels of "success" pretty often. I am definitely concerned about the returns to the Quileute, but it's important to recognize that returns to various basins are poor indicators of returns elsewhere, even when that elsewhere is nearby.

There are definitely more fish moving in the Chehalis tribs, and I hope that's true for the upper OP tribs, too, but if not, we can't necessarily assume a correlation. Timing and location of ocean fisheries have a lot to say about how many fish make it back to the gravel in various drainages....

 

[Evan B]

Dealing with something very similar on the Sandy. Let's hope something changes for all of us.

 

[flybill]

Seems like this for all andromonus fish these days.. Sad but true! Let's go fish Belize and Cuba! Bones and tarpon! I'm going in the next few years!

 

[brownheron]

I agree that the situation on the Quileute sounds bad... really bad. Hadn't seen it before now, but YIKES!

That said, all these runs are at least somewhat unique, and strangely, Grays Harbor and upper OP fisheries experience different levels of "success" pretty often. I am definitely concerned about the returns to the Quileute, but it's important to recognize that returns to various basins are poor indicators of returns elsewhere, even when that elsewhere is nearby.

There are definitely more fish moving in the Chehalis tribs, and I hope that's true for the upper OP tribs, too, but if not, we can't necessarily assume a correlation. Timing and location of ocean fisheries have a lot to say about how many fish make it back to the gravel in various drainages....

Hi Shad

It's not the return strength that was the biggest problem.

The bigger issue was the drift net and poacher carnage in the lower river that WDFW let happen. The scene down there when the water was low was ridiculous.

 

[charles sullivan]

Hi Shad

It's not the return strength that was the biggest problem.

The bigger issue was the drift net and poacher carnage in the lower river that WDFW let happen. The scene down there when the water was low was ridiculous.

How did wdfw allow the drift net and poacher carnage?

 

[brownheron]

How did wdfw allow the drift net and poacher carnage?

By not working to implement a closure due to low water like they did last year and two years before that.

If you haven't been there before, the lower Quilleute is wide and fairly shallow at normal levels and has a smooth bottom of gravel and cobble without much structure. This makes it dead simple to net every fish in the river. When you're there a lot, it's pretty easy to tell when they go from 3 to 2 to 1 net days, even from up in the Sol Duc. Further, there are a few natural fish traps where in low water the fish get blocked in very accessible areas.

Last year and two seasons ago, under very similar conditions, the river was open for a short period while tribal netting took place and the tribes did very very well. They then negotiated a low water closure until rains came in early November.

This year, the river was already closed all summer due to low flows and spring/summer chinook concerns. For some reason they opened it in early October when we were still at near record low flows and left it open. FWIW and hearsay so I can't attest to accuracy but I heard via social media that that there was push back on the opening as it was obvious what was going to happen. Those raising the concerns were told it would be closely monitored and then it wasn't. Just recently, the limit was dropped to 1 fish which does very little at this point.

 

[charles sullivan]

By not working to implement a closure due to low water like they did last year and two years before that.

If you haven't been there before, the lower Quilleute is wide and fairly shallow at normal levels and has a smooth bottom of gravel and cobble without much structure. This makes it dead simple to net every fish in the river. When you're there a lot, it's pretty easy to tell when they go from 3 to 2 to 1 net days, even from up in the Sol Duc. Further, there are a few natural fish traps where in low water the fish get blocked in very accessible areas.

Last year and two seasons ago, under very similar conditions, the river was open for a short period while tribal netting took place and the tribes did very very well. They then negotiated a low water closure until rains came in early November.

This year, the river was already closed all summer due to low flows and spring/summer chinook concerns. For some reason they opened it in early October when we were still at near record low flows and left it open. FWIW and hearsay so I can't attest to accuracy but I heard via social media that that there was push back on the opening as it was obvious what was going to happen. Those raising the concerns were told it would be closely monitored and then it wasn't. Just recently, the limit was dropped to 1 fish which does very little at this point.

I agree that it is a management failure. It is a tribal management failure. The tribes are in charge of their fishery.
If the tribes stance was that they are fishing, no matter what as you speculate, then what is WDFW supposed to do?

 

[Shad]

Interesting how different the storylines are between Grays Harbor and the Quileute. On the one hand, The QIN chose not to fish much, because the price per pound was too low to make it worthwhile. Meanwhile, the Quileute Tribe took more fish than expected, despite the poor value?

I know I just said these fisheries can vary quite a bit, but I can't imagine the runs were quite so different north to south as the storylines make it seem. Something stinks, and sadly, it's not rotting salmon carcasses....

 

[Smalma]

Not sure that I see a hatchery coho failure on the Sol Doc, the hatchery has met its egg take goal and to date has surplus more than 2,000 fish.

Not sure what that means for the wild run.

Curt

 

[Paige]

Was on the coast fron Oct 12th -15th for a friends 50th Birthday party, Coho fishng was very slow with all the rivers very very low! Went 1 for 2 on the Hoh from Oxbow to G n L plus 2 Chinook hens we released, 2 bull trout and a cutthroat or 2.
Next day I mad the very bad mistake to the float the Boggie from hatchery to Wilson in my barge, I've never dragged my boat that much! There was so much good Coho water that held absolutely nothing, but seen a few random rollers to know there was some around. We went 1 for 1 right above maine line bridge in a tiny slot and a few cutthroat. The guy we fished with the day before on the Hoh said the Hoh sucked as well.

Sunday I broake camp and bailed. We heard it was a shit show on the Quillayute and dint want to get into that.

 

[Pink Nighty]

I'm unsure if it's related, but the nooksack and skagit have been light on chums and coho since the calendar hit November, at least to my eye. I feel like it should be lousy with fish, but I'm barely seeing any.

 

[brownheron]

Not sure that I see a hatchery coho failure on the Sol Doc, the hatchery has met its egg take goal and to date has surplus more than 2,000 fish.

Not sure what that means for the wild run.

Curt

Comparing to prior years might be better to understand the situation. I'll be very surprised if we make up the 10K+ difference in the next three weeks but I hope I'm wrong.

My house is barely downstream from the hatchery creek and I don't see anything in the river. This time of year, it's usually all I can do to keep my dog off the carcasses. This year, nothing.

 

[brownheron]

I agree that it is a management failure. It is a tribal management failure. The tribes are in charge of their fishery.
If the tribes stance was that they are fishing, no matter what as you speculate, then what is WDFW supposed to do?

I have no idea if that was the tribe's stance. I was racing up an inferential ladder, speculating based on the zero transparency from WDFW, anecdotal reports on tribal harvest, and what I saw myself.

What I expect from WDFW is that they be present, monitor, and steward the half of the resource they are supposed to be managing. But they weren't and didn't as far as I can tell. They seem to have abdicated their role to the co-managers who have a different set of incentives and will act accordingly.

Charles, I always value the thoughtful perspective you bring to these discussions. But you aren't here watching the stuff that happens as it happens while WDFW alternates from implementing inconsistent/ineffective regulations to doing nothing at all.

 

[speedbird]

I heard a rumor that the river was kept open because the region biologist was on vacation in…Mongolia

 

[LBL]

WDFW Creel Report

Date	River	Catch Area Code	# Anglers Interviewed	# Anglers Using a Boat	Species	Wild Released	Wild Harvested	Hatchery Released	Hatchery Harvested	Other Fish Released	Other Fish Harvested	Hours Fished
11/17/2023	Sol Duc River	406	4	0	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.47
11/16/2023	Sol Duc River	406	3	0	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.47
11/13/2023	Sol Duc River	406	6	5	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.37
11/10/2023	Sol Duc River	404	3	3	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.95
11/10/2023	Sol Duc River	406	10	0	Coho	1	1	0	0	0	0	24.30
11/9/2023	Sol Duc River	406	3	2	Coho	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.58
11/5/2023	Sol Duc River	406	10	5	Coho	0	2	10	0	0	0	18.72
11/4/2023	Sol Duc River	406	6	0	Coho	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.37
11/2/2023	Sol Duc River	406	3	3	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.22
10/31/2023	Sol Duc River	406	3	0	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.48
10/29/2023	Sol Duc River	406	18	2	Coho	0	2	0	0	0	0	30.93
10/28/2023	Sol Duc River	404	3	3	Coho	0	6	0	1	0	0	9.00
10/28/2023	Sol Duc River	406	19	0	Coho	0	0	1	0	0	0	32.40
10/26/2023	Sol Duc River	406	6	0	Coho	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.50
10/24/2023	Sol Duc River	406	6	0	Coho	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.50
10/22/2023	Sol Duc River	406	9	0	Coho	1	1	0	2	0	0	18.47
10/20/2023	Sol Duc River	406	13	0	Coho	1	1	0	0	1	0	28.30
10/18/2023	Sol Duc River	406	7	4	Coho	2	2	0	2	0	0	14.58

Showing 1 to 18 of 18 rows

 

[brownheron]

I heard a rumor that the river was kept open because the region biologist was on vacation in…Mongolia

Yeah... same here.

 

[brownheron]

WDFW Creel Report

Uhg... I didn't think to look at the creel reports. It's so weird this season, almost like the river is closed. I've hardly seen a boat coming down from the hatchery launch.

LBL - we'll have to fish together for steelhead this winter since coho ain't happening!

 

[charles sullivan]

I have no idea if that was the tribe's stance. I was racing up an inferential ladder, speculating based on the zero transparency from WDFW, anecdotal reports on tribal harvest, and what I saw myself.

What I expect from WDFW is that they be present, monitor, and steward the half of the resource they are supposed to be managing. But they weren't and didn't as far as I can tell. They seem to have abdicated their role to the co-managers who have a different set of incentives and will act accordingly.

Charles, I always value the thoughtful perspective you bring to these discussions. But you aren't here watching the stuff that happens as it happens while WDFW alternates from implementing inconsistent/ineffective regulations to doing nothing at all.

I have read your original post again. I'm guessing that you wish that WDFW had kept the river closed until you all had your 1st big rain as was done last year. I am thinking that you would want WDFW to have been as conservative with the hatchery coho as they were with the hatchery spring kings. Is that what you wish had happened? Should they have exerted some power over the tribe to not take more than their 50%?

WDFW is exceptionally poor at the communication aspect of their jobs. I can understand the feeling that they aren't transparent. The departments position of weakness created by the co-management paradigm lends itself to a lack of transparency. This weakened position is in addition to the poor job that the department does as a matter of course. It's sort of a daily double of bad communication.

If this is all the result of a single bio taking his vacation time and travelling to Mongolia, then that is comedic but not surprising. Who is the employee who wants to step in and close a fishery? The hatchery got their egg take so from the hatchery management perspective, it's a success. The seasons went as planned. The fish were harvested and they got egg take.

 

[LBL]

Uhg... I didn't think to look at the creel reports. It's so weird this season, almost like the river is closed. I've hardly seen a boat coming down from the hatchery launch.

LBL - we'll have to fish together for steelhead this winter since coho ain't happening

I spent some time talking to the person taking the creel report numbers last week when I was out and got no fish. She said folks were just deciding to stay away due to the lack of fish. Only 3 guide boats out, on the Sol Duc, at the height of the Coho season. This is their livelihood! If the guides aren’t showing up it really says a lot.
Last year was crazy. The river didn’t open until after significant rains brought the river up at a realistic level for fish travel. The SD was full of fish and anglers.
All of my information is quite antidotal, what do I know? Just wanted to catch some fish.