Oregon snowpack suddenly looking much better

[Canuck from Kansas]

This should be reassuring for all of the alarmists.

Bend area officials are still calling for drought, even with the late snow. They say it’s because of lack of rain (overall).

@swimmy How did I know you would take a shot. No one was being alarmist. We are still in severe drought (even in your current home state). Your statement also demonstrates that you really don't understand what you are looking at. The above map you were referencing is point in time, ie, for this date, snowpack is above normal (normally snowpack has started melting at this time), but for the season, most of the southern cascades received below normal snowpack. We are far better off than a 6 weeks ago, but things are hardly where they need to be.

I know you won't read the Summary at the bottom, you've previously stated in a thread where I provided you information it is not your style; but I would encourage you to give it a try, might help you to understand better.

Year to date:



Map released 12 May


"SUMMARY

Despite a wetter and cooler April, long-term precipitation deficits continue to remain stable or have increased for most major basins, leading to a continuation of drought conditions throughout much of Oregon. The exception is in the northwest, where drought conditions have improved
significantly over the last 3 months due to above median precipitation and near to above median snowpack for much of winter. In southwestern Oregon and areas east of the Cascades in central and southeastern Oregon, late season snow accumulation was not enough to offset early season snowpack deficits and early rapid melt-out in several areas. The early melt-out, in combination with snowpack peaking at levels significantly below the 1991-2020 median peak resulted in an adverse outlook for water supply availability during the summer. In impacted regions, the additional snowmelt runoff contribution to streamflow volumes is well-below median. Therefore, preparations should be taken for surface and ground water supply shortages during summer in these regions.

Due to multi-year impacts, extensive drought is forecasted to persist in much of Oregon throughout summer. Current drought conditions include nearly 90% of the state in some drought category according to the National Drought Monitor, with approximately 69% of the state in D2 (severe) to D4 (exceptional) drought categories. The three-month outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center calls for elevated chances of below normal precipitation, and elevated chances of above normal temperatures for areas east of the Cascade crest in Oregon."

But hey, it's only based on actual data.

Have a good one folks.

cheers

 

[FinLuver]

@swimmy How did I know you would take a shot. No one was being alarmist. We are still in severe drought (even in your current home state). Your statement also demonstrates that you really don't understand what you are looking at. The above map you were referencing is point in time, ie, for this date, snowpack is above normal (normally snowpack has started melting at this time), but for the season, most of the southern cascades received below normal snowpack. We are far better off than a 6 weeks ago, but things are hardly where they need to be.

I know you won't read the Summary at the bottom, you've previously stated in a thread where I provided you information it is not your style; but I would encourage you to give it a try, might help you to understand better.

Year to date:

View attachment 14380

Map released 12 May
View attachment 14382

"SUMMARY

Despite a wetter and cooler April, long-term precipitation deficits continue to remain stable or have increased for most major basins, leading to a continuation of drought conditions throughout much of Oregon. The exception is in the northwest, where drought conditions have improved
significantly over the last 3 months due to above median precipitation and near to above median snowpack for much of winter. In southwestern Oregon and areas east of the Cascades in central and southeastern Oregon, late season snow accumulation was not enough to offset early season snowpack deficits and early rapid melt-out in several areas. The early melt-out, in combination with snowpack peaking at levels significantly below the 1991-2020 median peak resulted in an adverse outlook for water supply availability during the summer. In impacted regions, the additional snowmelt runoff contribution to streamflow volumes is well-below median. Therefore, preparations should be taken for surface and ground water supply shortages during summer in these regions.

Due to multi-year impacts, extensive drought is forecasted to persist in much of Oregon throughout summer. Current drought conditions include nearly 90% of the state in some drought category according to the National Drought Monitor, with approximately 69% of the state in D2 (severe) to D4 (exceptional) drought categories. The three-month outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center calls for elevated chances of below normal precipitation, and elevated chances of above normal temperatures for areas east of the Cascade crest in Oregon."

But hey, it's only based on actual data.

Have a good one folks.

cheers

I had heard/read, that it would take two years (back to back) of wetness to bring us back to non-drought conditions.

 

[cody-]

View attachment 14371

Reassuring for some regions, alarming for others. I canceled my NM small steam trip this summer based on likely conditions there. Northern New Mexico = bone dry and/or on fire. I will have to fry up my own sopapillas this year.

I heard from some folks around Los Alamos that they're prepped to evacuate when given the order. Starting quick and heavy this season for northern New Mexico...

 

[swimmy]

Even if we don't get to average, the late timing is very beneficial.

Agreed. Every basin in Montana is now above average and the late timing has proven to be beneficial.

I have a ton of shit planned with all kinds of guests coming to visit....several from this forum. This summer should kick ass.

I'm fuckin' stoked.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

I had heard/read, that it would take two years (back to back) of wetness to bring us back to non-drought conditions.

I have hear/read similar. MT Bachelor, which has received over 100 inches in the last 6 weeks, is still below average seasonal accumulation by about 3 ft.

The way I understand the hydrodynamics, which is admittedly poor, it takes 18 months to 2 years for the snowpack from the Bachelor/Sisters mountains to percolate through the lava tubes/crevices and to charge the Lava Lakes, Little Lava being the source of the Deschutes. Haven't been able to get up there yet, but for the last 2 years there has been no outflow from Little Lava into the Deschutes, so the main source of water has been downstream springs, with very low water levels in the river; witness the Wickiup:



The Ochocos have also been woefully behind in snowpack, witness Prineville:



The upshot is, we are in a severe water deficit in the west. Folks really need to understand this before snide comments regarding "alarmists" and so when they can't water their tiny perfect lawns, they will understand why.

 

[_WW_]

Well...I was on the Skagit yesterday. Damn it looks good!

 

[swimmy]

The upshot is, we are in a severe water deficit in the west. Folks really need to understand this before snide comments regarding "alarmists" and so when they can't water their tiny perfect lawns, they will understand why.

Well...I was on the Skagit yesterday. Damn it looks good!

You obviously don't understand how SEVERE this is. Fun police will be coming for you soon.

 

[_WW_]

You obviously don't understand how SEVERE this is. Fun police will be coming for you soon.

Story of my life...

 

[SurfnFish]

our current reservoir levels as of today..one good winter does not move the needle much during a serious drought...grateful for what we have received

 

[Porter2]

Getting back to Lake Mead….didn’t take long…

 

[swimmy]

This looks great. I heard that Bridger Bowl has received more snow since it has closed than it did the entire season.

 

[Bugmeister]

This looks great. I heard that Bridger Bowl has received more snow since it has closed than it did the entire season.

I’m as happy as anyone about the current snowpack. Way better than the alternative and will look forward to eyeballing conditions soon as I’m heading out to various MT watersheds to check on my parents, check in on my aunt, and help open up the fishing cabin. Last year’s fire season got within a few 100 yards of our fishing property. Having the property burn would have been rough.

That said, the current measured snowpack levels don’t mean that portions of MT aren’t in drought status; the drought is a result of several decades of warmer/drier pattern. i wish it was being undone with a single big month or even a single solid winter, but I also wish I was 6’6 (6’9 inclusive of a sweet ‘fro) so i would have had a chance to play in the league.

With the NBA likely out of reach, what I will be pulling for instead are 10 or so solid winters in a row, with mellow spring conditions that don’t melt things off too fast to boot.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

I’m as happy as anyone about the current snowpack. Way better than the alternative and will look forward to eyeballing conditions soon as I’m heading out to various MT watersheds to check on my parents, check in on my aunt, and help open up the fishing cabin. Last year’s fire season got within a few 100 yards of our fishing property. Having the property burn would have been rough.

That said, the current measured snowpack levels don’t mean that portions of MT aren’t in drought status; the drought is a result of several decades of warmer/drier pattern. i wish it was being undone with a single big month or even a single solid winter, but I also wish I was 6’6 (6’9 inclusive of a sweet ‘fro) so i would have had a chance to play in the league.

With the NBA likely out of reach, what I will be pulling for instead are 10 or so solid winters in a row, with mellow spring conditions that don’t melt things off to fast to boot.

View attachment 14880

Ohh, stop being an alarmist and killjoy, you're going to ruin someone's vacation with talk like that.

Cheers

 

[SurfnFish]

During a week long family get together last summer we were dealing with moderate to ugh smoke, which led to a discussion about environmental changes and the varying viewpoints on it.
Our three kids, all professionals with excellent jobs and kids of their own, shared a collective experience when discussing climate change with their peers.
The ones most concerned, as they are, were parents concerned about the challenges their kids were going to face throughout their lives with the world we are leaving them. And conversely, their peers who didn't have children were less concerned about climate change and more concerned about their personal happiness.
And based on the responses on this and other climate change threads on the forum, pretty much spot on...

 

[swimmy]

So you get your family together and have discussions about climate?

You guys sound like a real hoot.

 

[SurfnFish]

So you get your family together and have discussions about climate?

You guys sound like a real hoot.

that's right Swimmy, as well as discuss college, careers, spend the day on the river bank where we paddle SUP's and canoes and the grandkids take turns fly casting with me in the shallow, family bike rides on the trails, and have afternoon BBQ's filled with laughter, so it is a hoot.
And when someone is seriously ill, or misfortune strikes, than we all band together to help each other through it. And even though there are different points of views on politics and such among us, we hear each other out and respect others opinions without being disdainful of them. And a highly active group with some excellent athletes/triathletes in it, none obsessively brag about their personal fun factor, we assume that's a given.

 

[swimmy]

And even though there are different points of views on politics and such among us, we hear each other out and respect others opinions without being disdainful of them.

As someone who has been on the sharp end of your attacks because we don't align on some things, I can't help but

But it is cool that you have a nice relationship with your family. That is something to be really proud of.

 

[Peyton00]

i think its neat that your entire family live in the same neighborhood so you can do all those things together.

 

[SurfnFish]

i think its neat that your entire family live in the same neighborhood so you can do all those things together.

actually they are spread out in two states, only get together when we have the time, so it is extra precious when we can. Envy those multi-generatlional families that can live in the same town or county...considering a starter home in the coastal town we raised my kids in is now well over 1M, just didn't work out that way for us..

 

[SurfnFish]

As someone who has been on the sharp end of your attacks because we don't align on some things, I can't help but

But it is cool that you have a nice relationship with your family. That is something to be really proud of.

I'm good with the 'killing' it, Swimmy, having fun is a good thing...the mockery towards those of us who view climate change more seriously than you, however, tends to raise one's hackles...